Stock holdings (23rd Aug 2020):
Disclaimer:
1. This post should not be construed as buy, sell or hold recommendation for any stock.
2. While I'm open to address queries on my stock holdings, I’ll be under no obligation to respond to all queries.
3. I'm not disclosing mutual fund holdings.
4. I’m not a SEBI registered Investment Adviser or Investment Analyst on the date of posting this article.
5. I shall not be liable for any loss which readers may incur due to their actions basis my stock holding updates.
4 STOCKS ONLY
ReplyDeleteDear Sir,
ReplyDeleteThanks for sharing your stock portfolio.
The last stock you have invested is in November 2015.
May be you have increased your investment in the existing stocks during last 1 year.
It will be helpful, if you can tell us the percentage of investment in each stock and which one you increased investment recently?
Also, please let me know, one or two stocks that I can buy today for long term investment.
I am planning to enter Oriental Carbon. Do you think, it is good to enter now or should I wait for correction?
Thanks and Regards,
Narendra
Dear Narendra,
DeleteMy responses:
1. I'm a salaries person and have been buying one of these 4 stocks when my salary gets credited at end of every month. The last new entrant in my portfolio was Eimco in Aug 2016.
2. Manappuram is close to 55% of my pf and other 3 are around 10-18% each.
3. Apologies, I don't make recommendations. An investor needs to take their own call after studying businesses. I would however be happy to respond if you have queries in any of the stocks.
4. I've not bought OCCL in last few months; I prefer investing stocks trading below PE of 10. Every investor has a comfortable zone for buy price - yours may be different from mine.
Regards
Vikrant
Sir your valuable view on kellton tech, morepen lab, tanka solution and IFC bank for long term..
ReplyDeleteHi Gaurav,
DeleteApologies, no views. I'm yet to study these businesses.
Regards
Hi Vikrant,
ReplyDeleteAny particular reason why you existed from EimcoElecon because as per my understanding you entered into this stocks few months back and also for last quarter it posted really good result and generally you never exit from the business so quickly hence surprised to see that eimco is out of list ? or its holding came less than 4% because of other stock appreciation ?
Just curios to know the reason to exit from the company
Thanks
SK
Hi SK,
DeleteYes, I exited Eimco few days back and updated my portfolio page. You are right; I generally sell when -
1. Share price has moved up significantly and there is better opportunity available for investment. Re-investment is a big risk so I tend to be very careful for shifting investment from one business to another.
2. Management undertakes a decision which is morally / ethically questionable.
3. Change in management strategy with which I feel uncomfortable, eg- diversification.
However, none of the above reasons were responsible for my exit. This was due to slight miscalcualtion at my end. I needed some funds on urgent basis. Salary inflow also reduced due to tax deductions creating a short term capital situation. Relatively speaking, Eimco was least of my conviction bets in the portfolio, so I decided to exit.
Truth be told, I was plain stupid to land in a cash flow situation.
Regards
Hi Vikrant,
ReplyDeleteThanks for responding so clearly and this is one of the reason I follow you so keenly.
Thanks once again.
SK
Hi Vikrant
ReplyDeleteAre you still adding these stocks on dips or have you any plans to add any new stock in near future ? Do you track or have any views on DHP india and Virinchi limited.
This comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteHi Amit,
DeleteI increased position in Manappuram when it fell after demonetisation. I've just started adding position in 2 stock which I've not yet disclosed since the holding is less than 4%. Jan-Mar is difficult period due to tax outgo - hopefully my inflows will stabilise April onwards helping me increase positions.
Sorry - no views on Virinchi and DHP.
Regards
Hi Vikrant. Thanks for replying. I am sure that the two stocks you are adding is also having the solid fundamentals as your current portfolio stocks. I hope your new stocks will reach to more than 4 % of your portfolio very soon and you will disclose them on your portal. I will wait for that time to add few quantity of your disclosed stocks as i am very fond of your research and follow your stocks and portfolio.
ReplyDeleteAmit,
DeleteThanks for your kind and encouraging words.
Regards
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteHi Vikrant,
ReplyDeleteNice blog. I have also invested in Arman(currently 15% of my PF). Do you have any views on the following questions:
1. UP Farm Loan Waiver: Arman has branches in UP and was planning to increase their exposure in the state. Also, there is similar demand in Maharashtra where Arman has good presence. What is your view on this?
2. Digitalisation: This is a disruptive event for MF as most of the transactions are in Cash. Do you think it will have an impact on small players like Arman as banks will be in a good position to reach customers.
3. Asirwad: Mannapuram also has a good exposure through their subsidiary Asirwad. So technically, your exposure to MF is quite high. Are you bullish on the sector?
4. PFS: I read your blog on PFS. Are you still tracking the stock? Any thoughts on valuations?
Kunal
Hi Kunal,
DeleteAppreciate your kind words on the blog. Here are my responses to your questions:
1. I got the opportunity to meet the management sometime back. They communicated that after demonetization, Arman has slowed down disbursement. Earlier monthly disbursement used to be around Rs. 26 cr per month which reduced to just Rs. 1 cr per month. Arman also shifted to disbursement through banking channel instead of direct cash in UP. It is difficult to quantify the hit on Arman due to demonetization. Arman doesn't lend to farmers but farm loan waiver may have come spill-over impact on the recoveries. We'll have to wait for Q4 results to expand view on Arman's business.
I believe Arman management is 'Ultra-Conservative', which is great in this heated market. There is enough demand but what matters more is recovery of these loans. I got comfort when management did extra provisioning last quarter - taking a direct hit on the bottom line.
2. Sourcing of small ticket loans is an operationally intensive business . Borrowers don't come to branches and banks, especially PSU banks, don't have the sourcing ability to capture the market. The best business model for banks is to treat MFIs as aggregators of loans - banks can buy these loans from MFIs without putting legs on the ground.
Digitization is a disruptive force and MFIs surely need to embrace it. Allow me to suggest that its the most abused word as well. Giving a 15k tablet in hands of front officers who work in heat, dust, rains may not be a sustainable and productive alternative. This 15k tablet may not last a year! I believe MFIs need to carefully identify the touch-points they want to digitize and evaluate cost structure viz a viz productivity.
3. Agree, I think managing risk at portfolio level has been a blind-spot for me. I bought Manappuram for their gold financing business. MFI, Housing and SME businesses grew significantly in last 1-2 years which was not part of my investment thesis. I think I'll keep evaluating how Arman's business shapes up; if it does well there is no harm in remaining invested. I like financing business but there are risk attached which one should appreciate.
4. I took tracking position in PFS for studying its business. Being a banker myself, I appreciate the impact of credit costs on the financing business. The average loan size in PFS was close to ~100 cr - stress assets shoots up even if one loan is under stress. I was uncomfortable bearing this risk and decided to exit PFS. Its another matter that stock price has moved up around 50% from the level I exited. No regrets, I continue to sleep well at night.
Regards
Vikrant
Thanks for your reply. I really appreciate it. Please continue sharing your thesis as your analysis, critical-thinking and in-depth research help all of us :)
DeleteHi Vikrant,
DeleteIt looks like you have exited Arman Financials. Any particular reason? What did you make of the recent concalls and results?
Thanks,
Kunal
hey Vikrant,
ReplyDeletenice to read your blog, really informative.
I can see you added inditrade capital but the PE is quite high(~25). I always had an impression that low PE was your primary criteria. do you foresee high growth ? any other criteria that has made your decision ?
Hi Pawan,
DeleteGlad you liked the blog.
PE still remains the key criteria. I earlier strictly kept PE of 10 as the upper threshold. However, I relaxed this criteria in recent past for following 2 reasons:
1. Fall in interest rates: PE may be relaxed in a softening interest rate scenario. I have recently bought stocks at PE range of 13-14 which is at earning yield of ~7-8%. The 10 year government bond yields in similar range.
2. General increase in market prices: There are number of vociferous voices claiming markets have run up and significant fall in short term is imminent. I don't like to keep cash in hand and always prefers money in market than in cash. Since prices have run up, I was left with limited options to find a good company at low PE levels. I averaged up in some of my existing positions at higher PE levels (~13-14).
Reason for buying Inditrade: A financing company needs to be looked from P/B perspective as well. When I bought Inditrade, P/B and P/E were ~1.2 and ~18 respectively. PE*PB was 21.6 which is less than Graham no of 22.5.
Regarding growth, the brokerage business is making loss however client financing is doing well. Sudeep Bandopadhyay has set up financing against commodity and microfinance businesses. Hopefully they will act as growth drivers for the business.
Regards
thats very detailed and thoughtful answer .. thanks for taking out time and efforts. Helpful.
Deletehi Vikrant ... any views after Manappuram recent quarterly results, imo.. looks like a bit not in sync with past results
ReplyDeleteHi Pawan,
ReplyDeleteI believe it's important that investors give long rope to the management, especially when are invested in the business. This is, obviously, subject to investors' proper due diligence before investing in any business. Investors should expect such volatility in business; I would be worried if the business is just going in just one direction. Having said so, its important for investors to understand the reasons for such volatility.
Manappuram results for last 2 quarters have been subdued primarily due to MFI loan losses and slow gold loan growth. The results seem to have been impacted due to demonetization. Manappuram continue to remain significant portion of my portfolio and may remain so for foreseeable future. I believe management has the ability to effectively run the business creating value for both customers and shareholders. The core business also remains strong.
I would leave the rest to luck!
Regards
Dear Vikrant,
ReplyDeleteI landed up on your page while researching over NOCIL Ltd.
That was a really good piece of information summarised appropriately.
Post the same, i checked on your portfolio to understand you have invested in Mannapuram Finance and Shiva Global. Could you give me your brief insights over both these stocks especially shiva global?
Hi Abhineet,
DeleteGlad you liked the article.
I recently purchased Shiva Global - its a small position as I believe in the theory of incrementalism i.e. start small if one is not sure about the business and increase/decrease the position when more info / data is available. I had to disclose my position since the stock had run up few weeks back breaching my 4% disclosure threshold,. It has however come down to below 4% of my pf. I continue to disclose since the share has been quite volatile. I'm waiting for the Q1 results and AR for updating my views on the business. One of the primary reasons why I took the position was strong FCF, debt reduction, promoter buying and expected easing in working capital due to DBT scheme.
Manappuram forms significant portion of my portfolio from lower levels. Management has done reasonably well over last few years creating a strong business model. I hope it will continue to do well :)
Please don't treat my response as a buy / sell recommendation. My views could be biased due to my long position in both the stocks.
Regards
Dear Viki
ReplyDeleteI have seen Manappuram as one of ur holdings, i have found out that in recent times its employees and promoters are selling their shares even DollyKhana june 2017 portfolio doesnt contain it(Source trendlyne.com) Is there any fishy going on and still fundamentals are intact?
Hi Rocky,
DeleteI'm not too bothered with Dolly Khanna buying or selling any stock. She has her own investing style which may or may not match with my investing thesis.
On the other hand, I closely track the promoters / insiders activities as reported with exchanges. The disclosure in exchanges indicate that majority of shares sale is by employees. I wouldn't be bothered as much since employees are selling the shares vested from ESOPS allocated to them as per remuneration policy. There could be multiple considerations for such selling other than future business potential of the organization - diversifying the portfolio since ESOPS concentrate the investments in one stock, liquidity for family need for marriage / education etc.
As a disclosure, Manappuram forms significant part of my portfolio. which may bias my views. I have not sold any shares in recent past.
Regards
Hi Vikrant,
ReplyDeleteThanks for sharing you stock portfolio, I was going through Shiva Global Agro quarterly result for June'17. It seems that company's top-line has grown to 13% and bottom-line has grown to 21%, while other companies in same category has done bad in this Quarter. But on contrary, market is reacting quite negatively with result. Whether I am missing something in result? Or I can consider its time to accumulate? As I am seeing one of the promoter "Mohit Deepak Maliwal" is keep on adding at this level too. I am very new to the market, started this long journey just a couple years ago, so have limited knowledge, will be very thankful for your views.
Hi Saket,
ReplyDeleteMarket values common stocks not just basis good performance - there are may other factors - psychological, emotional, geopolitical, political etc which may affect the stock price movements.
Shiva's quarterly results are average or probably just above average. High debt still remains a big challenge. Business has thin margins; such business should be able to turnover the assets at higher rates to make good returns in value terms. The topline growth was decent; higher stock in trade, inventory expense line item affected the bottomline growth. This growth in stock in trade and inventory may be construed as management's expectations of better future off-take. Other reason could be seasonal availability of raw material leading to stocking. Not exactly sure of the reason for this high number on the expense side.
Insider buying could be considered a positive signal while taking investing decision.
I wouldn't be able to comment if one should buy the stock - I've vested interests and wouldn't be wise on my part to give any recommendation.
All my best wishes for your investing journey !
Regards
Hi Vikrant,
ReplyDeleteIf possible please let us know your percentage allocation for each stock.
Thanks
Hi Boopathi,
DeleteAs on date, Manappuram is 42% followed by OCCL and Ambika at around 18% each. Inditrade is ~12% followed by Kirloskar at ~6%. Got small position in Shiva Global Agro, slightly less than 4% (not disclosed in the blogpost).
Regards
Thanks a lot Vikrant !!! Happy Investing !!!
DeleteDear Vikrant ,
ReplyDeleteGreat job ! I like your neutral reply for queries. I am new and novice in learning the investment in equity .In order to shortlist the stocks as per our own criteria ,do you use any yardstick ? Thx in anticipation.
Dear Vikrant,
ReplyDeleteWant to make some fresh investments in 3-4 companies. Is Ambika Cotton, Manappuram finance and OOCL still good for a fresh portfolio at CMP levels with a media term prospective 3-7 Years or may be long. Earlier have a Portfoloio of 30+ companies but now want to focus only on 3-4
Regards
Puneet
Hi Vikrant,
ReplyDeleteWhat is your current allocation of your porrfolio? If you have no issue in disclosing the allocation then kindly share it on monthly/quarterly basis whichever suits you.
Thanks
Hi Chandan,
DeleteManappuram and Dharamsi is ~50% of my pf as on date. Arman, Sequent and Nandani adds upto ~22%.
Disclosing allocation on regular intervals would be difficult.
Regards
Hello,
ReplyDeleteCould you please describe your reasons for selling off Ambika Cotton.
Thanks a lot :)
Ambika Cotton is a solid business with great promoter pedigree. My reasons for selling Ambika were following:
Delete- Alternate investment opportunity where returns expected is higher
- Ambika is a stable business growing @ 10-12%. While knitting capex has been done, new spindle capacity got delayed. I expected a lot more appetite from management for growth. I do expect business to generate impressive cash flows on sustainable basis.
Regards
Hi Vikrant, in case you are not having issue in sharing, can you tell us your CAGR or XIRR of your portfolio last year/since inception basis?
ReplyDeleteSir Arman financial is tumbling day by day. At current situation it can be accumulated? Please advise.
ReplyDeletecan u send me your email address
ReplyDeleteViki
ReplyDeleteU completely overhaul your portfolio. Not a single old stock left pre 2018